Yangyuan drinks break through the lack of skills, revenue may drop 3 billion in five years, Yao kuizhang’s wealth will drop sharply by 3.1 billion, to be filled by 1.2 billion dividends

“Always use your brain and drink six more walnuts!” Yangyuan drink (603156. SH), which relies on the core product of six walnuts, may also need to drink a can to think about how to successfully break through. Yangyuan beverage, founded in 1997, focuses on the R & D, production and sales of walnut milk, a plant protein beverage. In 2018, after four IPOs, Yangyuan beverage landed in the A-share market. However, the business performance of Yangyuan beverage is not ideal. In 2015, the company’s revenue exceeded 9 billion yuan, which dropped to 7.459 billion yuan in 2019, and the Organization predicted that it would be less than 6 billion yuan in 2020. In five years, revenue decreased by 3 billion. < / P > < p > related to this, the company’s valuation has shrunk significantly. On January 7, 2021, its valuation was 30.7 billion yuan, more than 10 billion yuan compared with 42.3 billion yuan on the eve of listing. < / P > < p > as the founder, actual controller and chairman of the company, Yao kuizhang’s holding wealth has sharply decreased by 3.1 billion yuan since he went public. It greatly promoted the company’s cash dividends, with a cumulative share of 1.2 billion yuan. < p > < p > Yao kuizhang also thought of some ways. IPO fund-raising to expand production, marketing network construction, into the “Red Bull war”. At present, these actions have not brought a positive impact on the company’s operating performance. < / P > < p > it is worth mentioning that, up to now, the disadvantages of Yangyuan beverage, which emphasizes marketing and ignores R & D, have not changed significantly. In 2019, the company’s publicity and promotion cost is 647 million yuan, which is more than 11 times of R & D investment. < p > < p > on January 7, the three major indexes of a shares rose sharply, and the performance of Yangyuan beverage was poor, and finally closed at 24.82 yuan / share, down 9.88%. The trading volume of the day was 349 million yuan, the highest since September 8, 2020. The next day, the share price fell again to close at 24.26 yuan / share, down 2.26%. < / P > < p > on February 12, 2018, Yangyuan beverage was listed on the main board of Shanghai stock exchange through IPO. At the time of listing, the initial price was 78.73 yuan / share. On the first day of listing, the stock price once reached 113.37 yuan / share. However, the next day, the stock price fell to close, and all the way down. On March 26, 2018, the share price fell to a periodic low of 68.93 yuan / share. On January 31, 2019, the share price hit a new low of 56.15 yuan / share. < / P > < p > considering the factors of stock transfer and huge cash dividends, on January 8, the recovery price of Yangyuan beverage was 67.78 yuan / share, lower than the initial price. This means that the stock price at the time of listing is its peak. < / P > < p > as of January 7 this year, the market value of Yangyuan beverage was 30.701 billion yuan, while in February 2018, on the eve of the company’s listing, it was valued at 42.361 billion yuan based on the initial price. In less than two years, the market value has evaporated by 11.66 billion yuan. < / P > < p > according to the three quarterly report of 2020, Yao kuizhang directly holds 21.15% equity of Yangyuan beverage, and also holds 34.87% equity of yazhishun Investment Co., Ltd., the latter is the second largest shareholder of Yangyuan beverage, with a shareholding ratio of 18.35%. Therefore, Yao kuizhang indirectly holds 6.40% equity of the company, and directly and indirectly holds 27.55% equity of the company. < / P > < p > at the beginning of listing, a large number of institutions swarmed into Yangyuan drinks. Southern fund, Great Wall Fund, private placement, enterprise annuity, insurance, trust and other institutional shareholders appear in the list of current shareholders, with a total of 11. < / P > < p > wind data show that at the end of June 2018, the shareholding ratio of Yangyuan beverage institutions was 34.97%, which dropped to 22.95% at the end of that year. On September 30, 2020, the institutional shareholding ratio is only 0.34%. < / P > < p > in the past, the performance of Yangyuan beverage has achieved rapid growth. In 2008, the company achieved a revenue of 285 million yuan, reaching 1.077 billion yuan in 2010. In 2013, when the company hit the A-share market, the operating revenue soared to 7.431 billion yuan. In 2014 and 2015, it continued to rise, reaching 8.262 billion yuan and 9.117 billion yuan respectively. < / P > < p > from 2016 to 2018, the operating revenue of the company was 8.9 billion yuan, 7.741 billion yuan and 8.144 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 2.38%, – 13.03% and 5.21%. In 2018, the first year of listing, the operating revenue rebounded slightly, but still far lower than that in 2015. < / P > < p > from 2015 to 2019, the net profit of Yangyuan beverage attributable to the shareholders of the listed company (hereinafter referred to as net profit) were 2.620 billion yuan, 2.741 billion yuan, 2.310 billion yuan, 2.837 billion yuan and 2.695 billion yuan respectively, which were not stable, with a year-on-year change of 43.13%, 4.61%, – 15.72%, 22.82% and – 4.99%. It also grew fastest in 2015, rebounded in 2018, and declined again in 2019. < / P > < p > in 2020, the business performance of Yangyuan beverage is a little bad. In the first three quarters, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.019 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.14% and 32.48% respectively. The net profit after deducting non recurring profit and loss (hereinafter referred to as deducting non net profit) was 800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.06%. Both operating revenue and net profit fell again. < / P > < p > in view of the sharp drop in operating revenue in the first three quarters of 2020, Yangyuan beverage explained that it was mainly due to the pre Spring Festival and the impact of the epidemic situation on the company’s market demand. As the Spring Festival in 2020 was 11 days earlier than that in 2019, the company’s sales revenue in the peak season of Spring Festival in 2019 was more reflected in 2019. In the first three quarters of 2018 and 2019, the sales revenue of Yangyuan beverage was 5.757 billion yuan and 4.881 billion yuan respectively. According to the current operating revenue situation in the first three quarters of 2020, it is estimated that the annual operating revenue is less likely to exceed 6 billion yuan. Then, the annual operating revenue in 2020 will decrease by 3 billion yuan compared with the lowest in 2015. < / P > < p > in 2020, Yangyuan drinks also made some efforts, such as inviting Weiya and Simba team to live broadcast and bring goods, so as to quickly realize online user diversion and sales transformation. However, the results have not yet met expectations. < / P > < p > it is worth mentioning that the IPO of Yangyuan beverage raised 3.389 billion yuan, which is mainly used for the construction of Hengshui headquarters’ 200000 tons annual output nutritional plant protein beverage project, marketing network construction, market development and other projects. The company once predicted that if the new production capacity is fully digested, the annual sales revenue of the company will increase by about 1.368 billion yuan, and the annual net profit will increase by about 286 million yuan. < / P > < p > the construction period of the new capacity project is planned to be two years, and now two years have passed. It is disclosed that as of the end of June 2020, the construction progress of the project is 86.32%. According to public information, Yangyuan beverage was established in September 1997 and is one of the earliest walnut milk beverage manufacturers in China. At present, Yangyuan beverage and walnut milk of six walnuts are the largest enterprises and brands in China. < p > < p > the product structure of Yangyuan beverage is relatively single, which has been criticized by the market. In recent years, the company has also tried to optimize the product structure, but the effect is not obvious. < / P > < p > on the investor interaction platform, investors are also “anxious” for Yangyuan drinks. In December this year, an investor asked: in 2020, the popularity of plant milk will rise sharply, but the plant milk of Yangyuan beverage is still in the stage of niche trial sale, and the monthly sales volume of tmall is only dozens of orders. What is the company’s strategy to maintain competitive advantage and leadership in the field of vegetable milk? < / P > < p > according to investors, there is an obvious difference between the drinks of Coca Cola with sugar and without sugar. The products of Yangyuan drink are so sweet with sugar and without sugar, and each product tastes the same. < / P > < p > the reporter of Changjiang business daily found that when IPO, the disadvantages of Yangyuan beverage that emphasized marketing and ignored R & D had been widely questioned. Since listing, R & D investment has improved slightly, but compared with marketing investment, the gap is still far away. < / P > < p > in 2018 and 2019, the publicity and promotion expenses (including promotion expenses) of Yangyuan beverage were 565 million yuan and 647 million yuan respectively, the R & D investment were 21 million yuan and 57 million yuan respectively, and the publicity and promotion expenses were 26.90 times and 11.35 times of the R & D investment. < / P > < p > in recent years, the fluctuation range of net profit of Yangyuan beverage is not large, mainly due to financial income. At the end of each period in 2018 and 2019, the book financing funds invested were 8.344 billion yuan and 9.398 billion yuan, and the net investment income of that year were 350 million yuan and 464 million yuan respectively. In the first three quarters of 2020, the net investment income is 194 million yuan. In addition, because of the epidemic situation, the marketing expenses have decreased significantly, which makes the current net profit decline is not very ugly. < p > < p > according to people in FMCG industry, Yangyuan drinks should abandon the traditional dependence on large single products as soon as possible, conform to the market, rely on R & D, and constantly develop new large single products, and enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of products by virtue of existing marketing channels. Otherwise, with Yili, Mengniu and other giants continue to encircle, the company’s market advantage will be difficult to maintain. < / P > < p > Disclaimer: the purpose of this article reprinted by CNFC is to convey more information, and it does not represent the opinions and positions of CNFC. The content of this article is for reference only, and does not constitute an investment proposal. 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