Will the Naka conflict ignite the all-round war between Asia and Afghanistan

Analysts pointed out that the conflict between Asia and Argentina over the years around the Naka region is another concentrated outbreak of contradictions between the two sides. At present, the Armenian military mobilization is announced, while the Azerbaijani state of war is declared. The conflict may last for a period of time. However, considering various factors, it is unlikely that the conflict will evolve into a full-scale war. It has been reported that both sides used heavy weapons in the conflict, each with its own losses. According to the Armenian defense ministry, 16 Armenian soldiers died in the conflict. Both countries accused each other of firing first. Armenian Prime Minister pasigniyan said that Azerbaijan has declared war on the Armenian people, and it is likely that comprehensive military operations will be carried out in the border areas of the two countries, and the conflict may go beyond the borders of the two countries and cause irreversible consequences. Azerbaijani president Aliyev said that the Azerbaijani army team had responded to the shelling from the Armenian side of the contact line in the Naka region. He stressed that the settlement of the Naka issue is the historical task of Azerbaijan and will not allow the establishment of a second so-called “Armenian state” on “Azerbaijani land”. The Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijani in the Soviet era, and most of its residents were Armenian. In 1988, Naka demanded to be integrated into Armenian, which led to a conflict between Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the state. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenian in order to fight for Naka, and Armenian occupied part of the territory originally belonging to Azerbaijan around Naka. In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenian reached an agreement on a comprehensive cease-fire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility over the Naka issue, and armed conflicts between the two countries have occurred from time to time. In recent years, with the rise of its own economic strength, the demand for Azerbaijan to regain control of Naka has become increasingly strong, while Armenian hopes to maintain the status quo. Yang Jin, deputy director of the Central Asia Department of the Russian Institute of Eastern European and Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the new outbreak has seriously affected the economic development of the two countries, and further encouraged nationalist sentiment, which makes the Naka issue more sensitive, so the conflict is imminent. On the 27th, UN Secretary General Guterres expressed extreme concern over the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Armenian and Azerbaijani in the Naka region and called on both sides to immediately stop fighting. However, the Russian satellite news agency quoted the Ministry of defense of Azerbaijan as saying on the 28th that Armenian bombed the Azerbaijani border town of tertel early that morning, and the Azerbaijani side warned of retaliation. Analysts pointed out that the Naga issue, known as the “Caucasian powder keg”, involves multiple interests. Therefore, in addition to Asia and Afghanistan, the game of external forces will play an important role in the trend of the situation in Naka. On the 27th, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a telephone call with pachiniyan to discuss the situation in Naka. The Kremlin website issued a statement saying that the important task at present is to take all necessary efforts to prevent further escalation of the confrontation, and the key is to stop the military action of both sides. The EU calls on both sides of the conflict to immediately stop their hostile activities, strictly abide by the cease-fire provisions, and return to negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk group without preconditions, the European Union said in a statement on the 27th. In 1992, the conference on security and cooperation in Europe (CSCE) established a 12 nation Minsk group with Russia, the United States and France as co chairs to coordinate the settlement of the Naka conflict. After a telephone conversation with Aliyev on the 27th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on social media that “Armenian attacks on Azerbaijan once again, proving once again that it threatens regional security”. According to Yang Jin, because of the so-called “Armenian Massacre”, Turkey and Armenian are more close to Azerbaijan in terms of nationality and language, so they are on the side of Azerbaijan on the issue of Naka. Analysts pointed out that Armenian has long had close relations with Russia and is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Eurasian Economic Union (Eurasian Economic Union). However, Azerbaijan has always hoped to get more support from Russia on the Naka issue, and has actively promoted cooperation with Russia in the fields of energy, economy and trade for many years, and the bilateral relations have made continuous progress. Given its relations with Asia and Afghanistan, Russia will play a crucial role in the conflict. As the most influential country in the region, Russia will not sit by and see the conflict between Naka and Qatar out of control and affect its own interests. According to Yang Jin, the issue of Naka is related to the security of southern Russia. If the conflict is out of control, it may stimulate ethnic and religious conflicts in southern Russia, and the terrorist activities that have plagued Russia for many years may return. Some experts have pointed out that the United States has been playing geopolitical games for many years, disrupting the situation in Eurasia and curbing Russia’s influence in the region. Therefore, it is worth paying attention to how the United States gets involved in the Naka issue and how other external forces play games. On the whole, however, the conflict may last for some time, but it is unlikely to turn into a full-scale war.