What is the impact of lifting the UN arms embargo on Iran

The United Nations arms embargo on Iran ended on the 18th. Analysts believe that after the lifting of the ban, Iran is expected to purchase weapons from Russia and other countries to enhance its national defense capability. However, due to its own economic situation and the continued pressure of the United States, it is difficult for Iran to purchase weapons in the international arms market. The implementation of Iran’s nuclear agreement is at a standstill. The results of this year’s US presidential election and next year’s Iranian presidential election may have a significant impact on the final fate of the agreement. The Ministry of foreign affairs of Iran issued a statement saying that all restrictions on the supply of or acquisition of weapons from Iran will be automatically terminated from the 18th. Iran can obtain any necessary weapons and equipment from any source without restriction according to its own defense needs. The statement also stressed that Iran does not seek to acquire non conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction, nor will it purchase a large number of conventional weapons by surprise. In an article on social media, Iranian foreign minister Zarif said normalization of defense cooperation between Iran and the world is conducive to the cause of multilateralism and peace and security in the Middle East. The UN arms embargo on Iran can be traced back to the UN Security Council resolution 1747 adopted in March 2007. The resolution bans Iran’s export of weapons and calls on all countries to exercise vigilance and restraint in exporting heavy weapons to Iran. In July 2015, Iran and the six countries on the Iranian nuclear issue reached a comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue. The agreement, as well as the subsequent Security Council resolution 2231, states that the United Nations will maintain the arms embargo on Iraq until October 18, 2020, five years after the Iran nuclear agreement officially enters into force. Recently, the United States put forward a draft resolution on the extension of the arms embargo on Iraq in the Security Council and tried to start the “quick recovery of sanctions” mechanism in the Iran nuclear agreement to prevent the lifting of the arms embargo against Iraq, but all failed. Wang Jin, associate professor of the Middle East Research Institute of Northwestern University, believes that the lifting of the embargo reflects the international community’s adherence to multilateralism and its opposition to the U.S. Unilateralism Policy. In the future, Iran can obtain some high-end weapons from Russia and other countries, which will play a certain role in improving its national defense capability. However, the lifting of the embargo is only a “by-product” of Iran’s nuclear agreement. Iran’s main desire to get rid of its economic difficulties through the agreement is far from being realized. First of all, Russia and other potential arms sales countries want to maintain good relations with Iran’s hostile countries in the Middle East, such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Secondly, the U.S. sanctions against Iran have severely damaged the Iranian economy and weakened Iran’s ability to purchase arms. Third, the threat of US sanctions will scare off some countries that intend to sell arms to Iran. Finally, Iran’s military strategy is not based on purchased weapons but on self-produced ballistic missiles and some pro Iranian militia forces in the Middle East. On the occasion of the fifth anniversary of the implementation of the Iran nuclear agreement, trump will not spare no effort to destroy the agreement. Iran, on the other hand, has lowered its tune in recent months and has not further violated its commitments made in the Iran nuclear agreement. Wang Jin believes that the fate of the Iran nuclear agreement will largely depend on the presidential election results of the United States and Iraq. With the U.S. presidential election approaching, all parties to the Iran nuclear agreement outside the United States are on the sidelines, unwilling to make major moves on the Iran nuclear agreement until the US election results are confirmed. If U.S. President trump is re elected, the U.S. will continue to exert extreme pressure on Iraq, and the prospect of Iran’s nuclear agreement will be even bleaker. Trump’s rival, presidential candidate Biden, has previously said that if he is elected and Iran “strictly abides by” the Iran nuclear agreement, then the United States will rejoin the agreement. Iran will hold a presidential election next year, and ruhani, who has served two terms and is regarded as moderate, will step down. Iran’s nuclear deal is in trouble, leading to a rise in the strength of conservatives in Iran. Conservatives who are tough on the United States have won a majority of seats in this year’s Iranian parliamentary election. Wang Jin believes that if Conservatives win Iran’s presidential election next year, Iran may further break through the constraints of the Iran nuclear agreement.