Two months rose 2.25 times the Golden Dragon into salted fish valuation overdraft future performance

On Monday, the share price of golden dragon fish (300999), which rose 2.25 times in two months, suffered a big dive, falling 11.3% throughout the day, with a turnover of 11.59 billion yuan. Industry insiders told the “investment express” that after the early speculation, the valuation level of Jinlongyu’s share price has seriously overdrawn its future performance. In the future, the stock may digest the valuation pressure through the obvious fall of stock price. In addition, half a year after the IPO, a large number of restricted shares will be lifted, which may become the “last straw” to crush the overvalued share price of golden dragon fish. < p > < p > according to the “golden dragon fish – industry integration + structure upgrading of oil rice noodles, optimistic about the leading space” released by the researcher of Guojin food and beverage industry, kitchen products account for 60% of the company’s revenue. In 2019, the company’s market share of small package edible oil, rice and flour is 38.4%, 18.4% and 26.7% respectively, ranking first. In 2019, the consumption of edible oil, rice and wheat in China will be 34.4, 143 and 111 million tons respectively, and the demand trend is relatively stable. The securities companies believe that there is a trend of structural upgrading in the field of packaged oil, rice and flour. The competition pattern in the field of edible oil is relatively clear, with CR3 market accounting for more than 60%, and the future increment is mainly in the penetration of catering end and the increase of high-end oil proportion. The competition pattern in the field of rice and flour is relatively scattered, with CR3 market accounting for 41% and 43.8% respectively. The future increment is mainly brand and packaged products replacing bulk products Products. < p > < p > investment Express has counted the consensus expectations of most research reports in the market. It is estimated that even a series of bullish research reports with rather optimistic titles only predict that the compound growth rate of the future performance of golden dragon fish company is only about 10%. < / P > < p > in addition, some nutritionists also told the investment express that a healthy lifestyle does not support the sustained and rapid growth of edible oil consumption. Less oil and less salt has become a health prescription prescribed by hospital doctors to the majority of residents. This is a scientific law, and it will not change because the relevant enterprises are leading or not. In addition, from the perspective of grain consumption such as rice and flour, the growth rate is slow, and it is difficult to achieve sustained and substantial growth. < / P > < p > however, taking the industry research report issued by Guojin securities as an example, the company is given a valuation of 25 times in 2020, a target price of 32.25 yuan, and a “buy” rating. The relevant research report was published at the beginning of the company’s listing in 2020. It can be said that the valuation forecast given by this kind of securities company is very different from the secondary market performance of today’s golden dragon fish. < / P > < p > Peter. Lynch is a representative investor who promotes peg valuation of growth stocks all over the world. In all his major works, he clearly points out what it means that the static valuation level is nearly 10 times higher than the future compound growth rate. The answer is very clear: in the long run, the risk of falling stock prices is great. < / P > < p > according to the analysis of investment express by senior people in the industry, the behind the scenes fund driver of the 2.25 times rise in the share price of golden dragon fish in two months is actually not like the mainstream public offering fund. However, the fundamentals of golden dragon fish are good, especially its brand is almost a household name, so it has become an excuse to borrow money. < / P > < p > according to the reporter’s inquiry, although the share price of golden dragon fish has increased a lot, it is seldom listed on the dragon and tiger list of transaction returns. At present, there is no clear conclusion on the background of the funds behind the speculation. However, people in the industry generally tend to think that this is an operation carried out by the funds with obvious style of hot money in the market, which are keen on the “leading” effect in the secondary market at present, and the characteristics of trend trading are extremely obvious. < / P > < p > in this context, after the big negative line on Monday, it is very important for investors to control the risk. Industry insiders pointed out that, after all, not all leading consumer stocks have Maotai like fundamentals, and not all leading consumer stocks can reap profits through long-term sustained sharp price increases. < / P > < p > what is more worthy of investors’ attention is that golden dragon fish landed in the A-share market in the middle of October last year. In half a year after that, a large number of new shares applied for online by institutions will usher in the centralized lifting of the ban. At that time, faced with the high valuation, profitable institutions have only one choice: sell! It can be said that no matter how strong the funds behind the scenes are, in the face of the coming institutional chips in the near future, this is probably the last straw to overwhelm the camel. < / P > < p > Disclaimer: the purpose of this article reprinted by CNFC is to convey more information, and it does not represent the opinions and positions of CNFC. The content of this article is for reference only, and does not constitute an investment proposal. Investors operate on this basis at their own risk. < p > < p > Chinanet is a state key news website under the leadership of the Information Office of the State Council and the management of China foreign language publishing and Distribution Bureau. Through 11 versions in 10 languages, the website publishes information 24 hours a day. It is an important window for China to carry out international communication and information exchange.