The election situation in Belarus is complex and Lukashenko is facing a severe test

Belarus will hold its sixth presidential election on August 9. Lukashenko, 66, who has been re elected four times and has been elected five times, will continue to run for the election. Novel coronavirus pneumonia was held in the extremely complicated international and domestic situation. Belarus’s economy was in a standstill due to the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Before the election, Belarus’s domestic discontent continued to rise, and the largest opposition campaign led by the opposition was escalating. The arrest of 33 Russian mercenaries made the relationship between Russia and Russia tightened recently. 。 All kinds of signs show that the current president Lukashenko is facing an unprecedented severe political test in this election. On July 14, the Central Election Commission of Belarus announced that in addition to President Lukashenko, four other candidates had completed their pre election registration as presidential candidates. In the previous registration process, Victor barbarico and Valeri sepkalo were denied registration. The registration of these two people was rejected because they were considered as “representatives of the opposition of the pro Russian faction”. They had been funded by the Russian oligarchs. If they ran for election or were elected, they would threaten the national security of Belarus. It is precisely because of the rejection of their registration that the opposition and the public are strongly dissatisfied, and a large-scale wave of political protest has taken place in Belarus, resulting in a tense political situation. In addition to President Lukashenko, the four candidates who have registered as presidential candidates have their own characteristics. Congressman Andrei dmitryev, who led the opposition campaign headquarters in the presidential elections of 2010 and 2015. Although he also criticizes the authorities, his criticism is very peaceful and refuses to participate in activities against the authorities. During the period from 2016 to 2019, Anna karnoh, who once served in Russia’s parliament, was regarded as a pro Russian politician who was far away from Russia’s parliament. Sergei cerecheni, an entrepreneur, was not well known to the public until the current election. Svetlana dihanovskaya was not in people’s eyes, but because her husband could not register, she “ran for her husband” and became the “dark horse” of this election. < / P > < p > at present, the most concerned candidate may be tihanovskaya. She was originally an English and German teacher and her husband was an independent candidate, tihanovsky, who was arrested by the government before, so she unexpectedly ran for the presidential election in Belarus. Dihanovskaya repeatedly denounced “” in public, claiming that her political motive was to seek justice. She also said that if she wins the election, she is willing to be only a transitional president, promising to hold a “fair presidential election” again within six months after assuming the presidency, and then she will take the initiative to give up her talents. She also advocated the release of all prisoners held for political reasons during Lukashenko’s administration. In addition, Ji also “plans” to hold a referendum in the future to let the people decide whether to re implement the 1994 constitution. According to the analysis, these words of tihanovskaya are not only announcing the election program, but also the policy agenda. In a way, dihanovskaya has become a label figure “opposite” Lukashenko. Before dihanovskaya announced his candidacy, the opposition forces had been relatively dispersed, but now they have been able to unite to a certain extent. Many analysts believe that dihanovskaya has given hope to those who are unable to run normally, and opposition forces like babarico and sepkalo and their supporters have turned to support dihanovskaya. Under the leadership of the opposition, a demonstration and rally in support of dihanovskaya was held in Minsk city on July 30, involving more than 60000 people. It is the largest political rally in Belarus since 1991. Some media even commented that the support of the Belarusian people for dihanovskaya is no less than that for the current president Lukashenko. < / P > < p > in Russia, which has deep roots and inextricably linked with Belarus, the public opinion has a very clear understanding of Lukashenko’s election prospects. The international and domestic situations faced by this election are relatively turbulent. His competitors are strong, and the domestic political opposition has a certain public opinion foundation. At the same time, the 26 year ruling career has also produced a certain “sense of fatigue” for the people of Belarus. It should be said that Lukashenko is going through the most difficult period since he took office. However, the media also believe that Lukashenko has rich experience in adverse internal and external environment. He has demonstrated his extraordinary political wisdom many times in the past, so he can not underestimate his prospects for re-election. At present, early voting in the presidential election of Belarus has been started, and the early voting time is from August 4 to 8. The official polling day is August 9, and the Central Election Commission will announce the election results before August 19. The comparison of candidates’ strength and the complicated internal and external environment make the election of Belarus very complicated and more attractive. However, in addition to the election results, the general election will have a significant impact on the strategic issue of “where to go” for Belarus. The choice of the candidates in the national domestic and foreign policies is the focus that deserves more attention.