Muyuan shares, a leading pig breeding stock, still have a strong momentum, with a pre profit of 10-10.5 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 5.5-5.8 times, and a 14 fold increase in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, the net profit of muyuan was more than 100 million yuan a day, and the net profit in one quarter was the same as that in the first half of the year. Another “big pig farmer” Wen’s stock performance is not so bright, net profit is expected to decline by 9.69% – 16.07% compared with the same period last year. < p > < p > despite the brilliant performance of the company, with the continuous adjustment of pig price in recent years, the stock price of muyuan shares has also declined. At the same time, the stock has suffered a big sale, and the market value has shrunk by nearly 100 billion yuan. Pig giant has been sold off again and again, behind which is the market’s debate on the current pig cycle. In the evening of October 9, muyuan shares disclosed the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first three quarters of 2020 will be 20.7 billion yuan to 21.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13.93 times to 14.29 times. However, in the third quarter of the past, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of muyuan was 10 billion yuan to 10.5 billion yuan, an increase of 548.25% to 580.66% year on year. According to the semi annual report, muyuan achieved a net profit of 10.784 billion yuan in the first half of this year, ranking first among 86 enterprises in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector. In other words, according to the performance forecast, the third quarter of muyuan shares and the company’s first two quarters of profit. For the main reason for the performance change, muyuan shares said that from January to September 2020, the company sold 11.881 million pigs, up 49.80% over the same period of last year. At the same time, there is still a gap between supply and demand in the domestic pig market, and the price of pig has increased significantly compared with the same period of last year. To sum up, the sharp increase in pig sales and pig prices in the first three quarters of 2020 is the main reason for the sharp increase in operating performance in the same period. At the same time, muyuan also disclosed the pig sales data in September. The company sold 1.65 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 127.59%; the sales revenue was 5.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 199.38%. < p > < p > overall, the price of commercial pigs in September showed a downward trend. The average selling price of the company’s commercial pigs was 32.12 yuan / kg, which was 6.82% lower than that in August 2020. According to Wen’s announcement, it is expected to make a profit of 8.1-8.4 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 33% – 38%, but the performance in the third quarter is down 9% – 16% year-on-year. During the reporting period, due to the tight supply of pork market in China, the price of live pigs increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
novel coronavirus pneumonia, which is affected by factors such as oversupply of live poultry market, new crown pneumonia epidemic and lower consumption of catering and consumption, has declined significantly during the reporting period compared with the same period last year. Since July, due to the warming of consumer demand, the price of live poultry has stopped falling and rebounded, but it has not reached the same level in the same period of last year. As a result, the profit of poultry business of the company has dropped sharply year on year, resulting in large losses. < p > < p > from the perspective of breeding scope, Wen’s company is not only a pig farmer, but also a chicken farmer. During the period when chicken supply exceeded demand, the profit margin was smaller than that of pigs, which hindered the overall performance of the company; while muyuan stock focused on pig raising. < p > < p > more importantly, from the perspective of business model, muyuan shares adopts the integrated self breeding and self breeding mode, which raises pigs independently and owns the pig industry chain, thus reducing the cost; while Wen adopts the medium-scale decentralized breeding mode of “company + farmer”, and the profit is compressed to a certain extent. < p > < p > although the performance of the first three quarters is brilliant and the demand for pork is strong, the stock of “pork first brother” muyuan shares has been sold off in succession recently. < p > < p > just on October 9, when the performance forecast was disclosed, there were two block transactions in muyuan shares. The first transaction price was 66.60 yuan, with 3.0753 million shares and 204.8158 million yuan. The buyer’s business department was Zhengzhou Jingqi Road Securities Business Department of Haitong Securities Co., Ltd., and the seller’s business department was Henan Branch of Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. Shares of muyuan shares fell 1.92% to close at 72.58 yuan on Friday. Compared with the closing price of the day, the transaction was reduced by 8.24%. < / P > < p > the second transaction price was 76 yuan, 115200 shares were traded, and the transaction amount was 8.7522 million yuan. The buyer’s business department was dedicated to institutions, and the seller’s business department was Beijing Anli Road Securities Business Department of China Securities Construction Investment Corporation. < p > < p > on September 29, 2.89 million shares of muyuan shares were traded at a transaction price of 63.8 yuan, a 13.78% discount compared with the closing price of 74 yuan on the same day. < p > < p > on September 18, there were two large-scale transactions in muyuan shares, with a total of 22.4418 million shares sold, involving a total amount of 1.5 billion yuan. However, the transaction price of the stock fell to 67.94 yuan, about 10% lower than the closing price of 75.3 yuan on the same day. < p > < p > two days ago, there was a similar stock sale of muyuan shares. On September 16, the transaction amount of muyuan shares reached 1.547 billion yuan, and the seller was also an institutional seat. The total amount of the two transactions reached 3 billion yuan. < / P > < p > behind the stock sale, the stock price of muyuan stock has been falling all the way recently. In the past two months, the market value has evaporated by nearly 100 billion yuan, and the life of 80000 shareholders is not easy. With the rise of pork price, the share price of muyuan stock has been rising since this year. As of July 15, the share price of muyuan stock has reached a record high of 99.01 yuan / share. However, since the middle of July, the share price of muyuan shares has declined by nearly 27%, and the market value has shrunk from 371 billion yuan to 272 billion yuan, a decrease of nearly 100 billion yuan. According to the data, Qin Yinglin holds 52.71% shares directly and indirectly. When muyuan stock price was 99 yuan, Qin Yinglin’s stock market value was about 195.581 billion yuan. By the end of October 9, Qin Yinglin’s stock market value was about 143.371 billion yuan. < / P > < p > in August, he was 27th on the Forbes Global real-time rich list. Qin Yinglin’s ranking has fallen to 59th, according to the latest Forbes real-time ranking data due to the shrinking of his status. It is worth noting that muyuan shares are still ready to expand at a high speed. According to the convertible bond plan disclosed on the evening of the 13th of this month, muyuan shares is expected to raise nearly 10 billion yuan, of which nearly two-thirds will be used to invest in pig breeding and slaughtering projects, and the rest will be used to repay loans and supplementary funds. In addition, the share price of Wen’s shares has also been adjusted. By the end of October 9, Wen’s shares had reached 19.66 yuan / share, with a total market value of 125.3 billion yuan, down 30% from the year’s high. According to statistics, the rise rate of pork price in August decreased by 33.1%, significantly slowing down compared with the previous period. From January to August, the price of pigs fluctuated at a high level. After entering September, it went down all the way. After falling sharply in September, the pig price in October did not rebound during the festival window period. As of October 8, more than 2 yuan per catty per catty fell, from about 18.5 yuan to 16.30 yuan / jin at present. Industry insiders said that under normal circumstances, grain price, feed price and pig price are positively correlated, but in special cases, the correlation between pig price and grain price and feed price is weakened. However, the current pig price is in a special situation, and the impact of grain price and feed price on it is relatively small. The main reason is that although the current pig price has been falling, but under the background of African swine fever superimposed on the new epidemic, there has been a “super long and super large” pig cycle. The price of live pig is far higher than its value. The cost of pig per kilogram is more than 16 yuan, and the cost is only 8 or 9 yuan. The profit is huge, so that the impact of grain price on pig price is very little. The latest data showed that in the fourth week of September, the national pig market price was 35.15 yuan / kg, down 2.47% month on month. In addition, the specific price of pig feed in the same period was 12.46, down 2.88% month on month. Obviously, the decline of pig feed price is higher than that of pork price, and pig breeding enterprises still have large profit space. From the cost calculation, the profit per pig will be about 1507 yuan in the future. < p > < p > Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang securities, analyzed that the “pig cycle” has entered a downward channel, and pork prices have peaked and fallen. On the one hand, the stock of live pigs and reproducing sows continued to rise steadily. Although the recovery rate of supply was slow, it was significantly higher than that in the same period of last year, and the supply of pig industry chain continued to warm up; on the other hand, although the demand for pork rebounded, it was difficult to be stronger than the same period last year. Tian Yaxiong’s team of CSCI futures pointed out that although it has not recovered to the level before African swine fever, it is enough to have a significant impact on the high pig price. According to Tian Yaxiong’s team, we can see that the capacity expansion driven by high profit is gradually released. Due to the influence of rainfall in July, African swine fever recurred, and some pig sources were put on the market ahead of schedule. In August, it was slightly less than expected. Therefore, the pig price was still in high level and did not significantly drop. However, after entering September, the marketing plan of group enterprises generally increased, and the downward channel was similar It’s almost on. According to CICC, with the increase of pig inventory, the rapid rise of pig price caused by the over fast hurling in the early stage may be difficult to sustain, and the pig cycle may be close to the inflection point. In addition, the sharp rise in the base from September to October will drag down the pig price year-on-year or accelerate. < / P > < p > with regard to the issue of when people are concerned about the arrival of the “15 yuan per kilogram of pork”, relevant experts from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas said in a recent media interview that China’s pig production capacity has been steadily restored, and a series of factors, such as continuous expansion of production in large-scale pig farms, successive production of new pig farms, and the change of free range farmers from wait-and-see to action, are expected to accelerate the recovery of pig production and pig production capacity It is expected to return to the normal level by the end of the year, and the normal level of meat price is about 15 yuan. According to this logic, according to the six-month breeding cycle of pigs, it is expected that in the middle of 2021, the target of 15 yuan / Jin pork is likely to be achieved. < / P > < p > it is worth mentioning that Zhang Minggui, the new president of new hope, said at an analyst meeting in early September that once the pig price falls below 20 yuan, or even slightly lower, it will fall below most of the breeding cost line. At that time, most of the enterprises and farmers who expand their production will choose to wait and see or clear, and it is impossible to continue to fall to the level of 4 yuan to 5 yuan. Recently, Wang Mingyang, head of the animal husbandry department of Hubei Agricultural Development Center, told a news conference at the China Wuhan breeding pig auction fair that the price inflection point of this round of pig cycle has appeared based on the analysis of seven pig cycles experienced by Hubei Province. With the increase of live pig stock, the pig price will drop slightly in the near future, but it is pork in the fourth quarter In the peak season of consumption, it is estimated that the pork price in Hubei Province will remain around 30 yuan / kg. < / P > < p > Disclaimer: the purpose of this article reprinted by china.com finance and economics is to convey more information and does not represent the views and positions of the website. The content of this paper is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly and bear their own risks. < p > < p > Chinanet is a national key news website under the leadership of the Information Office of the State Council and managed by China foreign language publishing and Distribution Bureau. Through 11 versions in 10 languages, the website releases information 24 hours a day, which is an important window for China to carry out international communication and information exchange.