Hot Q & A: where is the road to peace

In the early morning of July 27, a new round of conflict broke out between Armenian and Azerbaijani in the Naka region. Both sides used artillery, tanks and other heavy weapons to fire at each other across the actual control line, leading to an escalation of tension. Both sides accused the other party of violating the cease-fire agreement. Why is there another conflict in Naka? How will the situation develop? What is the way to peace in the future? The Armenian Ministry of Defense said on the 28th that the fire density at the scene of the exchange of fire between the two sides is unprecedented, and many villages on the Asian side have been shelled. Asiatic Defense Ministry spokesman Stephanian confirmed on the 27th that two armed helicopters and three UAVs from the Azerbaijani side were shot down in the conflict. In the case of an Azerbaijani air defense unit, one of the crew members was shot down by the Armenian air defense department. As of the 28th, Armenian shelling has killed five people and injured many others in the Azerbaijani side of Tatar village. In response to the severe conflict situation, on the 27th, Armenian government announced martial law and general military mobilization throughout the country. On the same day, Azerbaijan also declared a state of war and imposed martial law throughout the country. The Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijani in the Soviet era, and most of its residents were Armenian. In 1988, Naka demanded to be integrated into Armenian, which led to a conflict between Azerbaijanis and Armenians in the state. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, a war broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenian in order to fight for Naka, and Armenian occupied part of the territory originally belonging to Azerbaijan around Naka. In 1994, Azerbaijani and Armenian reached an agreement on a comprehensive cease-fire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility over the Naka issue. In 1992, the conference on security and cooperation in Europe (CSCE) established a 12 nation Minsk group with Russia, the United States and France as co chairs to coordinate the settlement of the Naka conflict. Since then, negotiations at different levels on the Naka issue have been held in succession within the framework of the Minsk group, but no substantial progress has been made so far. Over the years, there have been frequent exchanges of fire between Armenian and Azerbaijani in the Naka region, with soldiers and border residents often injured and killed. The war of words between the two governments over the Naka region has never stopped. Analysts believe that the outbreak of a new round of conflict in the Naka region is still a continuation of the previous military confrontation between the two sides in the region. The new outbreak has seriously affected the economic development of the two countries, encouraged nationalist sentiment, and encouraged the two sides to shift domestic conflicts through foreign military action. UN Secretary General Guterres issued a statement on the 27th, calling on both sides to immediately stop the military conflict, cool down the current tension and solve the problem through negotiation. Russian President Vladimir Putin urged both sides of the conflict not to take actions to further escalate the situation in a telephone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister pasinian, and all military operations should be stopped immediately. U.S. President trump also publicly said on the 27th that he would take action to prevent the escalation of the Naka conflict. Analysts believe that the attitudes and actions of Russia, the United States and the European Union are important factors determining the direction of the conflict. The EU is committed to transporting natural gas from the Caspian Sea of Azerbaijan to Europe through the “Southern Gas corridor” in order to promote the strategy of diversification of energy sources. It absolutely does not want the stability of the region to be damaged and affect its future energy security. As the most influential country in the region, Russia’s attitude is crucial. From the perspective of its own strategic interests, at the moment of unstable factors in the situation of Belarus, it is absolutely not in Russia’s strategic interest to allow the conflict to go out of control. The next mediation action of Russia may become the key factor to determine the trend of the conflict.