Famous Russian scholars: China can learn from the experience and lessons of Russia US conflict

[Global Times reporter Bai Yunyi] as the United States continues to stir up trouble and exert all-round pressure on China, the world’s most important bilateral relations are being tested, and the international order is becoming increasingly unstable. “Washington is used to living in a world dominated by the United States. It wants to maintain this situation of” the end of history. ” Alexander Lukin, a well-known Russian international political scholar and China expert, said in an interview with the Global Times recently. In his view, Russia is also a victim of Washington’s “paranoia”, so if the world wants to be safer, one of the prerequisites is that the United States should learn how to coexist with other powers. Alexander Lukin is currently the director of the Department of international relations of the Russian State University of economics and the director of the East Asia and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Research Center of the Moscow Institute of international relations. He was once the vice president of the Russian Foreign Affairs College and wrote such works as “Russian bears see the Chinese Dragon” and “China and Russia: new friends”. < / P > < p > Lu Jin: China and the United States are entering a long period of geopolitical confrontation similar to the “cold war”. The confrontation began when Obama was in power, but was officially and publicly “announced” by President trump. Although China is now weaker than the United States militarily, we should not forget that at the beginning of the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union was much weaker than the United States. At that time, it did not even have nuclear weapons. I think the current situation between China and the United States can be called the “new cold war”. < / P > < p > “new cold war” is different from the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union in the last century. This cold war was initiated unilaterally by the United States. During the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, both sides were seeking to rule the world, and both opposing camps declared that their political and economic systems would eventually win in the world. During the cold war, both the United States and the Soviet Union believed that they were moving in the right historical direction. Of course, some people think that ideology was only used as a cover for political interests, but the actual situation is obviously more complicated. I think ideology and geopolitics were intertwined and jointly influenced the US Soviet foreign policy at that time. < / P > < p > now and then are different: the United States and its allies retain the totalitarian ideology of the past, that is, to create an ideal society on a global scale and ultimately solve all the world’s economic and social problems; while China does not have such a global ambition. China has not tried to impose its political and economic system on the world, nor has it tried to expand its sphere of influence. This time, the United States is unilaterally launching a “new cold war”, while China is only trying to protect itself and its main economic interests. I call this situation the “new unilateral cold war”. < / P > < p > Global Times: closing the Chinese Consulate General in the United States, introducing various measures against Chinese officials, and suppressing Chinese enterprises frequently Similar incidents have been staged in US Russian relations. Will Sino US relations gradually evolve like the current US Russian relations? < / P > < p > Lukin: there are some similarities between us Russia confrontation and US China confrontation, because Washington regards Moscow and Beijing as geopolitical and ideological opponents. However, from the perspective of most American strategists, China is a more dangerous threat, because China is doing better economically, breaking an important “belief” in American ideology that economic prosperity will inevitably bring about a political shift to the western “democratic” model. < / P > < p > in this context, the US measures should not be understood as a “short-term anomaly”, but as a “new normal”. More similar measures will follow. China must learn to live in this situation and not look forward to the return of the old days. < / P > < p > of course, this does not mean that there will be no temporary relief. In fact, the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union is also divided into many stages, and the intensity of confrontation in different stages is quite different: there is not only the Cuban Missile Crisis on the verge of nuclear conflict, but also the “relaxation period” of signing many important bilateral and international treaties. However, I am afraid that the general trend of confrontation will continue for a long time, until a fundamental change takes place on one side, or disappears like the Soviet Union. < / P > < p > Lu Jin: Generally speaking, the possibility is very small. Military conflict can only be initiated by the more powerful side of the United States, but Washington understands that doing so will have great repercussions. Both China and the United States have nuclear weapons. Military conflict means a lot of casualties, and it is difficult to predict who will win in the end. Military conflicts may also trigger a comprehensive international nuclear conflict, or lead to the collapse of the global economy and bring disaster to the United States. < / P > < p > however, there is a possibility that a hot war may break out unintentionally. The first potential is the escalation of local conflicts. For example, in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, if both sides have to react more and more strongly due to domestic politics, then a real war may occur. The second possibility is that the power of the United States falls into the hands of real madmen, such as supporters of the “anonymous Q” conspiracy theory, who are increasingly welcomed by the far right. These people do not care about the consequences of the war, or think it is worth realizing their crazy goals through the cost of the war. < / P > < p > Global Times: the 2018 US defense strategy report clearly defines China and Russia as “the biggest real threat to the United States”. In July this year, US Defense Secretary esper said at the end of his one-year term that China was the first strategic competitor, followed by Russia. What does the positioning of the United States towards China and Russia mean to the world order? < / P > < p > Lu Jin: this means that the world will usher in a long period of confrontation. China and Russia are very different countries. The few similarities between them are: they are big countries, they do not want to be part of the sphere of influence of the United States, and their political systems are different from those of the United States. In fact, any country that meets these three conditions will be regarded as a competitor by the United States. < / P > < p > If a country’s political system is only different from that of the United States, but is subordinate to the United States, such as Saudi Arabia or Ukraine, then it can be tolerated; if a country is “small”, political differences can also be tolerated, such as Montenegro or Ethiopia. However, if you are as powerful and disobedient as China, Russia or even Iran, and have political differences with the United States, and still stick to your own path, you will be regarded as an enemy by the United States. This is what I mean by ideology and geopolitics. < / P > < p > these countries should either change their policies or be prepared for a long-term confrontation with Washington and its allies. In the foreseeable future, such confrontation will become an important part of the global order. Scapegoat:

China: novel coronavirus pneumonia is a part of the overall strategy of the United States, but the election will also play a part in it, because Trump is playing the card, hoping to treat China as a scapegoat for its own handling of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and economic problems. In addition, he wants to divert attention from Russia, which is being used as a scapegoat by the United States. So these days before the US election will be a very dangerous period. < / P > < p > Lu Jin: even if Biden is elected, I don’t think the US confrontation line with China will change significantly. Now the two parties in the United States have almost reached a consensus that China is the cause of the economic problems in the United States. From the perspective of American ideology, there is no problem with America’s own economic system, which has been defined as “more superior”. Therefore, it must be China’s unfair behavior, trick and deception. < / P > < p > trump has a stronger sense of nationalism and geopolitics. He is not blaming China itself. He denies the China policy of previous presidents because he feels that they are allowing China to promote its own interests at the expense of American interests. From this point of view, in theory, China may be able to reach some kind of agreement with the trump administration after the election, which is in Trump’s view in line with the interests of the United States. Of course, trump is bound to ask China to make major concessions, but at least we can talk about it. < / P > < p > people usually pay more attention to ideology. They will pay more attention to human rights, freedom of the press, nature of political power and other issues. At the same time, they will pay more attention to international cooperation, economic globalization, climate change and other global issues. In Marxist terms, trump represents the interests of state capitalism, while he represents compradors and multinationals. It is easier to find some consensus on international issues through dialogue with China, while the issue of China’s internal policy is much more difficult. < / P > < p > it is worth noting that even if Biden decides to improve relations with China after taking office, the Republican Party will try to undermine this effort, for example, accusing him of “communicating with China”, just as accusing trump of “communicating with Russia” and undermining his efforts to improve relations with Russia. < / P > < p > Lu Jin: absolutely impossible. After the United States supported the Ukrainian coup in 2014 and imposed sanctions on Moscow, the illusion of the Russian leadership on the United States has been disillusioned. Trust of any kind no longer exists. Since then, the United States has been regarded as an unreliable partner, and Russia can only reach some tactical or pragmatic agreements with it. < / P > < p > if Russia is to stand on the side of the United States, the latter must abolish the entire sanctions system and recognize Russia’s interests in its surrounding areas. But Washington will never do that. It is not prepared to make any concessions. Its classic logic is: “my things are mine, your things. Let’s talk about them.” In this case, only some very marginalized Pro Western circles in Russia still advocate that Moscow should support the United States against China. < / P > < p > of course, some people in Russia are worried that China’s foreign policy will become increasingly tough, but this kind of worry will only make Moscow implement a more neutral foreign policy at most, but will not make Moscow form an alliance with Washington. < / P > < p > Global Times: not long ago, the assistant to the president of the United States for national security affairs bluntly said that the United States has too many sanctions against Russia to find new targets for sanctions. What is the current situation of Russia US relations reflected in this statement? < / P > < p > Lukin: Russia US relations are at the worst time in the past century, at least the lowest point after the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1933. Russia has learned how to survive under US and European sanctions. Of course, this is not to say that Russia’s economy is developing very well, but Russia’s economic problems are mainly caused by internal reasons. Similar to the deterioration of Sino US relations, Russia US relations are unlikely to have any significant improvement in the foreseeable future, although the two countries may reach some specific agreements. < / P > < p > Global Times: compared with the “new cold war” between the United States and China, what are the terms and statements of the Russian intelligentsia about the rivalry and game between the United States and Russia in recent years? < / P > < p > Lukin: Russian intellectuals have many terms to describe the deterioration of current Russian US relations, such as “confrontation”, “conflict” and “bottoming out”. “New cold war” is also used to describe the current Russian US relations. However, Russian officials, including President Putin, have avoided commenting too much or defining the current situation. They still call the Americans “partners”. It’s easy to understand: you shouldn’t close any door easily. In addition, rude statements don’t have any constructive effect. < / P > < p > Global Times: as