Experts’ sharp comments: a plan to kill many birds with one stone — the mysterious death of Mohsen fahrizad

On the afternoon of November 27 local time, Iran’s top nuclear scientist Mohsen fahrizad was assassinated 40 miles northeast of the capital Tehran. According to Iranian media reports, fahrizad is the head of Iran’s defense ministry’s nuclear program and a key figure in Iran’s nuclear development, which has long been confirmed by the intelligence agencies of the United States and Israel. Fahrizad is also a representative of the Iranian people’s resistance to the west, belonging to the national hero. Since Qasim Sulaimani, senior leader of Iran’s military and former commander of Islamic Revolutionary Guard al Quds brigade, was killed by us drones on January 3 this year, Iran has lost two generals this year, which can be described as heavy losses. The death of suleimani is still a source of injustice and debt. US President trump publicly acknowledged the attack, and Iran retaliated accordingly. However, so far, no country, organization or individual has claimed responsibility for fahrizad’s assassination. White House, CIA and Israeli officials declined to comment. < / P > < p > the process of fahrizad’s assassination itself is not mysterious, and Iran has made it public, but the timing of fahrizad’s murder is very intriguing. First, at the time of the assassination, Trump’s caretaker government had only more than three weeks to hand over power to Biden’s team. How to consolidate his political heritage in the transitional period is a matter of great concern to trump recently. Compared with the increase of Iran’s nuclear materials before he took office, trump has repeatedly sought to strike against Iran. But senior White House advisers just two weeks ago dissuaded trump from thinking that a crackdown on Iran would create a broader conflict in his final weeks in office. Second, less than three weeks ago, trump just adjusted the top personnel of the US Department of defense. The new acting minister, Miller, is familiar with special forces and anti-terrorism operations, while Acting Deputy intelligence and security minister, Cohen watnik, has said he wants to use covert operations to help overthrow Iran’s authoritarian government. To be sure, military support is needed to take action against Iran, but will Miller and these new high-ranking officials find a new way out of their routine? Third, Secretary of state Pompeo just returned from his visit to Israel last week. Two weeks ago, Israeli agents, at the request of the United States, assassinated al Qaeda’s number two, Abdallah Ahmed Abdallah, on the streets of Tehran, the Iranian capital, on August 7. This also has to make people doubt the degree of involvement of the United States in fahrizad’s assassination. < / P > < p > of course, all this is speculation, because the most mysterious part of fahrizad’s assassination is who actually planned the operation. So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the incident. It may take a long time to see the whole story come to light. The truth about the assassination of Abdullah was confirmed by the intelligence agency more than three months later. < / P > < p > first, it has removed a thorn in the eye and flesh of the United States and Israel. For 20 years, fahrizad has been recognized by the United States and Israel as the driving force and guiding figure of Iran’s secret nuclear weapons program. Therefore, his removal is likely to delay Iran’s nuclear development. Second, it meets Trump’s desire to strike Iran. On November 12, trump asked senior advisers at a White House meeting whether they could take action against Iran’s Natanz in the next few weeks. Although the idea was dissuaded by aides, the death of Iran’s top nuclear scientists seems to be no less effective than a blow to Iran. Third, it casts a shadow on the future of Iran and the future Biden administration to restart the Iran nuclear talks. Ten months ago, the senior military leader suleimani was killed by a US drone. Now the top nuclear scientist was assassinated again. With Iran’s anti US sentiment rising, it is obvious that US President elect Biden’s plan to restart the Iran nuclear agreement in the future is facing great difficulty. Fourth, it has created a threatening effect on other Iranian scientists. Over the past decade, there have been a series of assassinations against Iran’s top scientists. This time, fahrizad’s death has sent a chilling message to other scientists engaged in Iran’s nuclear program: if the lives of the leaders who are closely guarded on their own land can not be guaranteed, no one else can guarantee their own safety. Fifthly, it presents a difficult problem to the Iranian government. People gathered outside the government building in the capital, Tehran, to protest and demand the government to take retaliatory action, as was the case after Sulaimani was killed by the U.S. military. According to US media reports, the Iraqi militia supported by Iran has slowed down the rocket attacks on the US military base some time ago, as if deliberately setting aside an opportunity to negotiate with Biden’s new government. In order to achieve this goal, the Iranian government obviously needs to restrain its desire for revenge, but the hardliners inside Iran are likely to insist on refusing to yield to external pressure and demanding to double resist the West In memory of fahrizad. < / P > < p > judging from the current situation, Iran has obviously adopted a restrained approach for the long run. Although foreign minister Zarif pointed the finger at Israel, it is necessary to find out the real culprit before retaliating. On Friday night, Iran sent a letter to U.N. Secretary General Guterres condemning the “attack” of the assassination of fahrizad and warning that Iran will “reserve the right to take all necessary measures to protect its people and interests.”. < / P > < p > based on the views of all parties, it is still difficult to predict the exact consequences of fahrizad’s assassination, and the extent of the impact of fahrizad’s death on Iran’s nuclear program is unknown. Iran has experienced the assassination of some lower level scientists and the Natanz cyber attack in the past, but they only delayed Iran’s nuclear program without causing devastating damage, and Iran soon recovered from it. After this incident, Iran also claimed that the death of fahrizad would not affect the process of Iran’s nuclear development. < / P > < p > John Brennan, director of the Central Intelligence Agency during the Obama administration, tweeted that the assassination of fahrizad was “criminal and extremely reckless”, that he “risked provoking fatal retaliation and a new round of regional conflict”, and urged Iran to “resist the temptation of counterattack” and wait for “the return of the responsible leadership of the United States”. In order to achieve the goal of negotiations with Biden’s government, Iran may have to swallow its teeth temporarily. After all, if you can’t bear it, you’ll make big plans. However, this is not equal to eating a dumb loss? Perhaps this psychology was just seen through by the planners of the assassination. < / P > < p > according to the latest news, on the evening of November 29 local time, in the GAIM area near the border between Iraq and Syria, the vehicle of Islamic Revolutionary Guard senior commander Moslem shahdan was attacked by a UAV, and shahdan and three of his entourage were killed in the attack. At present, Iran has neither confirmed nor denied the news. If the news is true, it seems that the planners behind this series of incidents are determined by Iran.