Climate change research: frequency of extreme drought is expected to increase in Europe

Based on the analysis of long-term global climate data from 1766 to 2019, the impact of drought on central Europe in 2018-2019 was evaluated by the corresponding author, vital Harry of Helmholtz environmental research center in Germany and his colleagues. It was found that the drought degree in the summer of 2018 and 2019 was higher than the average, which was one of the three hottest summers on record. More than 50 per cent of central Europe suffered the largest and most severe drought on record, followed by the drought of 1949-1950, but with a smaller impact of 33 per cent. The authors use global climate change computer models to predict what changes in the frequency of droughts in the next few decades and whether greenhouse gas emissions will have an impact. In a climate scenario that simulates the highest growth in greenhouse gas emissions, they predict that the number of droughts in Europe will increase sevenfold in the second half of the century. The forecast also shows that the area of agricultural land affected by drought in Central Europe will nearly double, including more than 40 million hectares of cultivated land. < p > < p > in the climate scenario of simulating greenhouse gas emissions, the number of droughts predicted in the two-year period will be reduced by nearly half; in the low emission climate scenario, the frequency of drought will be reduced by more than 90%. Meanwhile, the number of drought prone areas in these two scenarios is expected to decrease by 37% and 60% respectively.