China News Online Review: why is the United States called the main risk of global economic recovery?

“novel coronavirus pneumonia response to the US has become the main risk of global economic recovery.” Recently, Reuters pointed out the embarrassing situation of the United States in the global economy. The report said that in the past, the United States has been promoting global economic development. But now, the US is beginning to drag down the global economy. From the perspective of scale and importance, the total economic volume of the United States accounts for about a quarter of the global economy, which plays a key role in the future direction of the global economy. However, the reality is that in the second quarter of this year, the GDP of the United States shrank by 32.9%, the cumulative number of unemployed people exceeded 50 million, more than 3600 enterprises applied for bankruptcy, and the new round of economic stimulus plan has not been implemented yet The U.S. economy did not take the lead during the outbreak. From the perspective of the interaction between the United States and the outside world, the United States is one of the most important importers and exporters of goods and services in the world and occupies an important position in the international trade system. However, the current situation is that consumption, investment and import and export in the United States are generally weak. It is worth noting that in the second quarter of this year, personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for nearly 70% of the US economy, plummeted by 34.6%, a record low. The poor performance of the US economy has also raised concerns among its trading partners. German exports to the US fell 36% in May from a year earlier, Reuters reported. For Canada, where nearly three-quarters of its exports are exported to the United States, the sluggish domestic consumption in the United States will undoubtedly seriously affect Canadian exports. Canada faces the same problems as Canada’s southern neighbor, Mexico. From the perspective of the potential risks of the current fiscal and monetary policies of the United States, the unconventional issuance of bonds and printing of money during the epidemic period in the United States eased the basic living security problems of the unemployed in the United States to a certain extent. However, the rapid increase in debt and the fear of possible devaluation of the US dollar jeopardized the stability of the international financial market and brought risks to foreign investors and foreign governments’ foreign exchange reserves 。 In the face of the current bad situation of the U.S. economy, analysts generally believe that although the U.S. economy may rebound in the third quarter, the trend of the fourth quarter and even next year is still not optimistic, and there is even a risk of “double bottom”. Fitch, one of the three major international rating agencies, recently downgraded the outlook rating of the US economy from “stable” to “negative”. In its latest world economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund predicts that the real GDP of the United States will shrink by 8% this year. < / P > < p > then, how can the United States stop its decline and walk out of recession? The author believes that only by facing up to the relationship between the epidemic situation and the economy can it be realized. If the relationship between the two can be summed up in one sentence, it is that “if the epidemic situation is not well controlled, the economy will not go.”. < p > < p > in the early stage of the epidemic, the negligence and neglect of the trump government led to the United States becoming the “disaster area” of the epidemic, and many states in the United States were forced to implement the “home order”, which directly led to economic stagnation, and the United States went into recession step by step. Since May, the trump government has repeatedly urged the resumption of work and production under the condition that the epidemic situation has not been completely controlled. The prevention and control of the states in the process of “unsealing” were not in place, which led to the rebound of the epidemic situation. Many places had to suspend and restart urgently, and the economic recovery plan was also forced to be delayed.