China and the United States have entered a “high-risk period” and China should fight a “protracted war” patiently

From now to the U.S. general election on November 3, the presidential inauguration ceremony after the general election to January 20, 2021 should be the most unstable and most likely to cause major crisis in Sino US relations. In order to win the election, trump cares about the temporary victory, while China focuses on the long-term national games. It should have more patience and endurance, longer-term thinking and more intelligent decision-making methods. On December 18, 2017, the US White House announced the US national security strategy, defining China, Russia, Iran and North Korea as “revisionist countries of the international order”, claiming to pose a huge threat to the national security of the United States. In 2018, the United States launched a trade war against China. Until January 15, this year, China and the United States signed the first phase agreement of trade negotiations in the Oval Office of the White House. The train that seems to be running in the dark finally saw a little light. Less than a week later, China entered the anti epidemic period. China’s China China relations have been declining since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in

: from the ban on HUAWEI to the suspension of thousands of Chinese visas to graduate students in the United States, from a series of legal interference in China’s internal affairs, to the issuance of administrative orders to sanction Chinese officials, from threats to prohibit and their immediate relatives to enter the country, to indicate that they want to screen the Chinese company’s jitter and WeChat in the United States. Software, the United States is going further and further on the road of “decoupling” from China. In addition to requiring China to continue to implement the provisions of the first phase of the trade agreement, the United States withdrew in the fields of people to people exchanges and security dialogue. The meeting between Yang Jiechi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and director of the office of the Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee, and U.S. Secretary of state pompeio in xiaweiyi on June 17 failed to reverse the trend of deteriorating bilateral relations. During this period, there are both Chinese accusations against the US military personnel for virus delivery, and Trump’s slander for calling the new coronavirus a “Kung Fu virus”. China and the United States have changed the discussion on the nature of bilateral relations and the nature of the other party’s system from an elite debate to a popular one. < / P > < p > in the United States, the new crown epidemic has made voters who did not pay much attention to China begin to pay attention to China. However, American politicians inevitably have more and deeper negative views on China because of the stigmatized attacks of the election campaign on China and the media’s basically negative reports on China. Opinion polls show that the number of Americans who hold negative views on China has reached a record high of 68%, which has something to do with this “toxic” public opinion. < / P > < p > in China, people’s impression of the United States is also rapidly deteriorating, and some Chinese netizens’ radical remarks are widely spread on social media. From the actual effect, the two peoples’ tit for tat has fallen into a vicious circle. The U.S. epidemic has been seriously out of control since July, and public support for president trump has been declining. It seems that the only way for trump to get rid of the accountability of voters is to “blame others”, so he will continue to talk about China. The six months from now to the general election on November 3 and after the general election to the presidential inauguration ceremony on January 20, 2021 should be the most unstable and most likely major crisis in Sino US relations. < / P > < p > for China, the following two things should be considered at present. First of all, at the macro level, the Chinese government should be prepared to respond to all changes without changing its objectives and its determination to move forward step by step because of Trump’s political needs. In order to win the election, trump tied his selfish thoughts to the most important bilateral relationship in the world. He cares about winning or losing for a while, while China is concerned about long-term national games. Therefore, he should have more patience and endurance, have more long-term thinking and more intelligent decision-making methods. In other words, trump wants “encounter war”, and if he can persist in “protracted war”, China’s advantages are obvious. Secondly, from the micro level, China can turn a blind eye to some obviously provocative policy initiatives of the United States and avoid the spiral of conflicts. Six months later, whether it is Trump’s re-election or Biden’s accession to the White House, there will be great changes in Sino-U.S. relations. There is no need to “seize the day and the night.”. In the face of all kinds of “decoupling” actions of the United States, China should adopt the mentality of “regardless of the wind and the waves, rather than walking in idle court”, prepare for the worst and do its own homework, so as to turn the demand for American technology, capital and market into the driving force of its own technological innovation and market independence. At the same time, China does not have to worry too much about the gains and losses of a moment. On July 9, Minister Wang Yi proposed a “road map” to improve Sino US relations. To activate and open all channels of dialogue, sort out and agree on the list of exchanges, and focus on and carry out anti epidemic cooperation are more pragmatic and easier to operate than empty talk about how to avoid the cold war between China and the United States. The possible cooperation projects between China and the United States include the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, the post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan, and the most urgent anti epidemic project. There are three most important aspects: China’s experience in dealing with the epidemic and restarting the economy, Sino US cooperation in developing countries, especially in Africa, and joint development, development, production and distribution of vaccines. According to Campbell, former assistant secretary of state for Asia Pacific Affairs, the epidemic is a timely wake-up call. If China and the United States do not cooperate, the whole world will suffer. Objectively speaking, the epidemic has weakened the influence of Beijing and Washington on international affairs. If the relations between the two countries continue to deteriorate or even lead to conflicts, it will aggravate the malaise of world economic development and the disorder of regional order in the post epidemic era. < p > < p > < p > months of ineffective anti epidemic, groundless accusations against China, and outrageous attitude towards the World Health Organization have all severely damaged the international influence of the United States. Perhaps there will not be a leaderless state in global development, but the world’s first power may be questioned in terms of leading the world agenda. < / P > < p > in the future, when talking about the global order, people will frequently mention “before the epidemic” and “after the epidemic”, and the debate on which governance mode is better and more effective will be more intense. The argument that modern civilization is not only one form will also attract more attention. However, no matter how much public opinion praises it, China should be calm enough to recognize its own room for progress while seeing the problems of the United States. In the words of Yuan Nansheng, former Chinese Consul General in San Francisco, “we should prevent misjudgment of the United States, mistaking the United States as weak, and see that the United States is still developing compared with itself.” At present, the United States is indeed experiencing unprecedented “Three Chaos”: epidemic, ethnic and political chaos. However, it should not be ignored that there is no sign of political instability in the United States. The United States can not only maintain its armed forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, but also continuously increase its troops in the Asia Pacific region, and lobby other countries to encircle China together. This is not the appearance of a great power exhausted. < p > < p > the spread of new coronavirus may stop the already slowed down globalization. At present, the new epidemic makes developed countries suddenly realize that they are so dependent on China in the industrial chain that they have to make some adjustments. Although the profit-seeking nature of capital can not be shaken by any intervention, the compulsory measures of these governments will make the industrial chain deployment previously regulated by the market break down significantly. The economic development of countries around the world will decline significantly in 2020 and 2021 due to the shutdown of enterprises, the suspension of public consumption and the monetary intervention policy implemented to restore the economy during the period of the new crown epidemic. The trade war without “military armistice” is even worse, making the efforts of economic recovery to the epidemic more difficult. The global economy may enter a long winter. If EU countries can succeed in fighting the epidemic and returning to work, it may become the third pole in the post epidemic world pattern. The deterioration of Sino US relations will also make it difficult for developing countries, especially African countries, to fight the epidemic. At present, there is no possibility of recurrence of the great feat of China and the United States in fighting Ebola in Africa in 2015. It must be soberly realized that if the epidemic situation can not be controlled in any part of the world, it means that the virus still has the possibility of global spread. China’s generous support to the World Health Organization (who) and its selfless assistance to African countries in their anti epidemic efforts are obvious to all. The greater challenge is how to make the fight against the epidemic a matter for African countries themselves, so as to avoid the situation of people going cold. < / P > < p > another trend that has begun before the epidemic and greatly accelerated during the anti epidemic period is the “border selection” requirements put forward by Washington for allies and friends. To be sure, although no country will voluntarily stand in the line between China and the United States, the world still tends to be divided. China’s economic take-off in the past 40 years, East Asia’s lasting prosperity and peace, and the world’s overall poverty alleviation and development all began in 1978 when China decided to enter the existing international order. If the US led “border selection team” is allowed to ferment, China is not without the possibility of being forced out of this order. It is still one of the major challenges facing China that how to expand its circle of friends, stand firm in the current international order, and play an indispensable role in further improving the injustice of this order. < / P > < p > in short, Sino US relations began to decline at the end of 2017, and the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 provided a valuable opportunity to repair the relationship. However, the internal and external political interaction between the two countries led to a spiral decline in bilateral relations, and even entered a state of free fall. Whether Sino US relations can return to the past is not important. What matters is how to control the bilateral relations which have begun to “decouple” in many aspects, but can not be “decoupled” in some aspects at least for the time being. Therefore, in the anti epidemic efforts, the two sides need to reduce the blame decibels, increase the space for cooperation, maintain restraint and communication on the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and other issues that cannot be solved for a while, continue to seek consensus on mutually beneficial economic and trade issues, and strive to repair the previous people to people and cultural exchanges between the two countries. In the face of new coronavirus, the common natural enemy of mankind, there is no reason for China and the United States not to put aside their disputes and work together to tide over the difficulties for themselves and the world to get rid of the influence of the virus.