Chengdu Business Daily: the countdown to the US election, “Gallup data” is the standard?

Despite the fact that people have been deeply troubled by the new epidemic, more than 5.5 million people have been diagnosed, 170000 people have died, and another “world’s first” US President trump seems to have no confidence and patience. As the 2020 US general election approaches, major media will also pay more attention to the presidential election. Almost all the analysis articles are inseparable from the “Gallup data”. Since 1936, the data of opinion polls have become an important “political vane” for American media and politicians to analyze. Recently, a poll on Gallup’s website shows that a quarter of Americans think that the two candidates that have been created “will not be good presidents.”. When Gallup is mentioned in the United States, people immediately think of the opinion poll. Behind this, we have to mention George Gallup, the man from Iowa who, with his own efforts, has changed American politics with the help of public opinion polls. As an outstanding mathematician in the United States, the founder of the sampling method and the organizer of the opinion poll, Gallup is almost synonymous with the poll activity. Gallup company, which was founded by Gallup in 1935, has become a world-famous public opinion poll and advisory body. Although he goes deep into the work of opinion poll in presidential election, he never participates in voting and never works for any political competitor. < p > < p > historian Sarah E. According to the Igo paper, before the birth of Gallup poll company, politicians analyzed people’s psychology based on newspaper editorials, letters to editors and even the frequency of workers’ strikes. With Gallup’s impetus, data entered people’s view, and relatively scientific opinion polls began to appear in the United States. It is not easy for Gallup to apply opinion polls to politics. According to time magazine, as a man eager to measure the world and obsessed with numbers, he worked as an editor in the Iowa daily before starting his business. In an era when readers’ interests were indirectly measured by word games, he first used unconventional methods to directly publish questionnaires to ask readers about their views on newspapers. Such a valuable experiment has accumulated considerable experience. During the presidential election in 1932, Gallup tried to use this method to conduct a public opinion poll and “evaluate American politics” through “advertising questionnaire”. He has been using this method for several years since then. President Franklin Roosevelt, who was seeking re-election, faced Republican candidate Alfred Langdon. According to the opinion poll of literary digest, the famous journal, at that time, Langdon had a 56% chance of being elected president. The method was based on the opinions received from 10 million telephone users and subscribers of the magazine, and then claimed that Langdon would win by 370:161. Gallup firmly believes that his method is more scientific, calling the former “incomplete polling method”, and that they “ignore the low-income voters who support Roosevelt’s new deal, which will only lead to wrong results.” As a result, Roosevelt was elected president of the United States, and literary digest lost its face and gradually declined. Gallup company has become famous and stepped on its own historical stage with a new posture. From political prediction to Hollywood movies to the monthly bestseller list, Gallup has gradually become a synonym for public opinion polls in the United States. By 1948, Gallup pollsters extended its operations to more than a dozen countries. In May 1948, Time magazine focused on Gallup. In the cover story, Gallup was said to be “not the only or the first user of the poll, but he must be the most famous and truly defining the poll.” More than half a century later, less than 100 days before the 2020 US election, Trump and Biden are fighting each other. However, a poll on Gallup’s official website is somewhat unexpected, which shows that “25% of Americans do not agree with the two presidents”, which is also the “most unusual time” recorded in the questionnaire. In 2004 and 2012, the same incumbents participated in the election campaign, the figures were 11% and 17%, but Gallup did not count the 2016 data. After all, Trump and Hillary Clinton are “people who have never been popular with the American people.”. < p > < p > in addition to the “national disapproval” statistics, Biden has a 47% advantage in favor of the two, while trump has only 42%. The latter has dropped from 49% in April, while Biden has remained stable. It is worth mentioning that according to Gallup’s statistics since 2005, Trump’s popularity before joining the Republican Party was less than 50%, and Biden was favored by most American adults in April 2019. < p > < p > although the Gallup poll shows Biden slightly ahead, the results are still confusing. After all, Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 was also beyond everyone’s expectation. According to a review article in the US Saturday evening post, although Hillary Clinton was still 3% ahead of trump in the referendum on election day, trump finally got enough electoral votes to make up for this“ This is also in Gallup’s “grasp”, because it is also within the scope of the poll error. After all, public opinion is complex and can’t be accurately expressed by numbers alone. Although Gallup can’t always be correct, according to time magazine, “his attempt to measure American public opinion has forever changed the political system of this country.”.