Chen Wenling: there are five characteristics in the great recession of the world economy!

In the first half of this year, the international situation we are facing is very severe, and the challenges are greater than everyone expected; the world is changing so much that it exceeds everyone’s expectation; China’s fight against the epidemic situation and return to work, production, commerce and market, and the speed and achievements of economic recovery have also exceeded everyone’s expectations. After the foreign epidemic situation is out of control, the economy will definitely stop. Even if the United States wants to return to work and production, it has to weigh and choose between human life, fighting the epidemic and restoring the economy. Therefore, the world is facing extremely severe challenges. The world economy has stalled, and the world economy has fallen into the most serious great recession since World War II. Specifically speaking, the great recession has five characteristics: < / P > < p > first, the world economy has fallen into a synchronous recession. That is, developed economies, emerging economies, developing countries and poor countries are in recession at the same time, without exception. The world bank predicts that 93% of the world’s economies are in a great recession. In 2020, economic activity in developed economies will shrink by 7%, while that in emerging economies will shrink by 2.5%. Secondly, the great recession is very deep. China’s economic growth in the first quarter was – 6.8%, which is the only negative growth since the reform and opening up. Of course, China’s economic growth in the second quarter has turned from negative to positive, with an increase of 3.2%, but it is mainly driven by investment. According to the OECD forecast, the global economy will decline by 6% – 7.6% or even more this year. The world bank predicts that it will decline by more than 5.2%, and the IMF will decline by more than 4.9%. The OECD forecasts that Japan’s economy will shrink by 6%, 7.3% in the worst case, 9.1% in the EU and the euro zone, 7.3% in the worst case, and 8.5% in the worst case. The IMF forecast of the world economy only two months later, and the degree of decline has become deeper. In April, the global economic growth was predicted to be – 3%, and the epidemic situation could not be controlled more than – 6%. In June, the global economy was predicted to be at least – 4.9%. The losses caused by the epidemic reached as high as 12 trillion US dollars, which is much more serious than the losses caused by the last subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Third, the recession lasted for a long time. Generally speaking, if the economic growth rate is less than 3% for two quarters, it should be regarded as a recession. Since the beginning of this year, in fact, the world economy has entered a recession since the second quarter. This year’s economic recession will certainly last not only two quarters, but also four quarters. If the epidemic cannot be controlled, the world economy will be in recession for a longer time. According to Kissinger from a political point of view, the epidemic will affect generations. Fourthly, the great recession has affected a wide range of areas. The World Bank forecasts that global per capita income is expected to decline by 3.6%. This is according to the global per capita level, not counting the extremely poor countries, if you include it, it will drop even more. With per capita income falling in 190 countries, millions of people will fall into extreme poverty. Whether in 2008, or in 1929 or 1930, the decline in income was not so wide. The tide of bankruptcy and unemployment of global enterprises will come like a tide, and it will be very difficult for many people to survive and live. Fifthly, there is great uncertainty in the recovery of world economic growth. The first variable is, of course, the continuous development and deterioration of the current epidemic situation; the second variable is unilateralism, protectionism and Populism in the United States; the third variable is the general election of the United States and brexit; the fourth variable is the competitive game among the world’s major powers and local wars in some places; the fifth variable is natural and man-made disasters in some countries, including locusts, floods and droughts 。 Economic stall is a problem that cannot be solved by a single country. Even if China controls the epidemic situation, it is difficult to restore global economic growth and rapidly return to the original state of economic development only by China.