Baima’s “daily collapse” is getting worse and worse this time it’s Maotai

In the “pig grass”, “pickled mustard”, “game grass” and other white horse stocks squatted one by one, the “original flavor of the grass” also collapsed yesterday. On October 25, Guizhou Maotai (600519) released its third quarter financial report. Yesterday, the company’s share price dropped by 5.62% to 1600 yuan / share, breaking a new low of nearly two and a half months. As of the end of the day, Guizhou Maotai reported 1643 yuan / share, down 4.22%, and the transaction volume was 10.822 billion yuan. The latest market value of the company is 2063.9 billion yuan, which is more than 90 billion yuan than last Friday. In the view of the industry, the third quarter performance is not as expected, only one of the reasons for Maotai’s setback. According to the third quarter financial report of Guizhou Maotai, the company’s total revenue in the third quarter was 23.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.18%; the net profit was 11.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.31%. This has been two consecutive months, the growth rate of Maotai in Guizhou has not reached double-digit, and the growth rate in the third quarter has further slowed down. According to the data, the revenue and net profit of Guizhou Maotai in the second quarter were 19.547 billion yuan and 9.508 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% and 8.9%, respectively. In the first quarter of this year, Guizhou Maotai achieved a revenue of 24.405 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 13.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.69%. According to the announcement, the company’s operating revenue in the first three quarters was 67.215 billion yuan, up 10.31% year-on-year; and the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first three quarters was 33.827 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.07%. In the first three quarters of this year, Maotai in Guizhou made 123 million yuan a day. < p > < p > according to industry insiders, the revenue growth in the third quarter was lower than the market expectation, which was mainly due to the less delivery of Maotai liquor. In the third quarter, the revenue of Maotai liquor was 20.084 billion yuan, an increase of 9.7%. The revenue of series liquor was adjusted by dealers to be 2.350 billion yuan, a decline of 1.4%, which also affected the performance to a certain extent. < p > < p > from the perspective of seller research, most securities companies are still optimistic about the long-term and steady growth of Guizhou Maotai, and have given a target price close to 2000 yuan / share. Huachuang securities expects that the company’s growth rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 10%, and the expectation should not be too high. Considering that the supply of base liquor will be more abundant in the coming year, the product structure and direct sales increment will contribute to the ton price, while the demand for high-end liquor is still strong, the performance certainty of the next year is still high, and the target price range of one year is 1790-2085 yuan. Although Su Cheng, known as “the most knowledgeable Maotai” in the market, has fine tuned the company’s earnings per share forecast, it has maintained a 6-month target price of 1999 yuan, which is equivalent to 36 times the price earnings ratio in 2022. However, the capital is still selling Maotai without hesitation. Ifind showed that yesterday’s large single outflow was obvious. The Shenzhen private equity personage contacted by the reporter said frankly that Maotai had already disclosed to the outside world earlier: this year’s performance goal is to achieve double-digit growth, so the growth rate of Maotai’s net profit has always been a signboard. Judging from the overall situation of Maotai in Guizhou in the first three quarters, it is basically in line with the annual growth target of 10%, “the biggest worry is not the performance of Maotai, but the company’s impulse to blood transfusion to the local government.” < / P > < p > it is worth mentioning that during the reporting period, Guizhou state owned assets operation company, the third largest shareholder of the company, reduced its holdings in Guizhou Maotai. At the half year report time, the shareholding ratio of Guizhou state-owned capital operation Co., Ltd. was 4%. At the end of the third quarter, the shareholding ratio of Guizhou state-owned capital operation company changed to 2.67%, and the number of shares reduced was about 16.75 million. Roughly estimated, the amount of cash reduced was about 28.5 billion yuan. The shares held by Guizhou state-owned capital operating companies are also directly transferred by Maotai Group. At the end of 2019, Maotai Group, the major shareholder of Guizhou Maotai, issued a notice, saying that according to the requirements of the relevant notice issued by the state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission of Guizhou Province, Maotai Group intends to transfer 4% of Guizhou Maotai shares to Guizhou state owned assets operation for free, and then complete the transfer registration in January 2020. < / P > < p > on the same day of the third quarterly report, the resolution of the fourth meeting of the third board of directors of Guizhou Maotai in 2020 was released. The meeting agreed that the company should donate no more than 546 million yuan to Xishui County People’s government for the construction of Xixin Avenue in Xishui County, 260 million yuan to Renhuai Municipal People’s government for the construction of a 10000 ton domestic sewage treatment plant in Qilong, Maotai Town, and 12 million yuan to the Renhuai municipal people’s government for the construction of alcohol fire treatment team The state and province donated 2 million yuan to the foundation. In this regard, Ouyang Yu, a researcher at Huachuang securities, said that this year is the final year of poverty alleviation. Guizhou Province has an arduous task. As a local enterprise, Maotai is bound to undertake more social responsibilities this year. Donation is a one-time behavior, only the corresponding market value is lost, and the reduction of state-owned assets is based on its own capital needs. These two actions are fully understandable and have little impact on the company. The company must consider the balance of the interests of various parties and focus on different stages. However, maintaining a long-term balance and respect for the interests of all parties is the reason why Maotai has won the trust of investors for a long time, and is also the basis for Maotai to reach the top of A-share market value. < / P > < p > Disclaimer: the purpose of this article reprinted by china.com finance and economics is to convey more information and does not represent the views and positions of the website. The content of this paper is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly and bear their own risks. < p > < p > Chinanet is a national key news website under the leadership of the Information Office of the State Council and managed by China foreign language publishing and Distribution Bureau. 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